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Real Estate Market Predictions for 2023

Everything in the economy is cyclical and real estate is no exception. After a few robust years, 2022 brought the housing market to more normal (pre-Covid) levels, which we expect to continue in 2023. Here are a few more of the trends that my team at Long & Foster Real Estate and I expect to occur next year.

Home inventory will continue to be scarce but grow. The lack of listings has been severe for more than five years. Although real estate is hyper-local, demand is expected to wane in 2023, causing inventory—that is, the number of homes for sale—to expand because with fewer people buying, fewer homes will go under contract and off the market.

Mortgage rates are likely to continue to rise, then drop. Interest rates are likely to climb in the first part of 2023, until the Federal Reserve stops raising the federal funds rate to curb inflation. In fact, the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that mortgage rates will drop to 5.4% in 2023. While that’s higher than the rock-bottom rates of the past few years, it’s lower than our current rates of about 6.5%.

Home values will hold steady. The National Association of Realtors predicts that prices won’t experience a major decline and could rise slightly in 2023. Many years of severely low inventory will prevent large home price declines.

Investors will benefit from real estate as a hedge against inflation. Over time, real estate investing brings steady returns, and as investors look to diversify their portfolios, real estate will rise to the spotlight as a way to hedge against inflation. In10 years or less, home prices that seem astronomical today, will seem like a bargain.

What these trends mean for you

If you’re planning on buying or selling a home in 2023, it’s important to put these trends into perspective and realize that the unique characteristics of your local market may not match these overriding predictions.

Working with a Long & Foster real estate professional like me with local market knowledge and industry expertise will help you reach your real estate goals in 2023.

No matter which way the real estate market turns, I’m proud to be affiliated with a financially strong and stable company that takes an integrated approach to real estate, so I can offer you all the services needed to buy, sell, rent, own and invest in real estate—from mortgage and title to insurance and moving.

Contact me today to get started on your journey home.

Long & Foster’s Third Quarter 2022 Real Estate Market Update

It’s hard to believe that we’re more than three quarters into 2022 and will soon ring in a new year. After a few years of a hot real estate market, you may wonder what’s happening now – especially if you’re planning to buy or sell a home in the next few months.

In 2020 and 2021, low interest rates, remote working opportunities facilitated by the pandemic, and low housing inventory created the perfect storm of buyers flooding to the market to purchase a home. Homes were selling quickly and for more than asking price. Recently, though, interest rates have started to rise and that has caused the market to shift to a more normalized pace—like what we experienced in the years before the pandemic.

To give you more insights, our team at Long & Foster has prepared a short market update comparing the third quarter of 2022 with the same period the last few years across our footprint.

Fewer homes were sold in the third quarter of 2022 than prior years. The number of properties sold this year was down 17% compared to the same period last year, but it was close to the number of properties sold in 2019.

Those properties that did sell this past quarter were more expensive. While fewer homes sold, those that did had an average sale price that was 7% higher than during the same time in 2021.

And they sold in about the same amount of time. On average, homes were on the market 22 days before they went under contract—that’s one day more than last year’s average days on market, but many days fewer than before the pandemic.

We’re shifting to a more balanced real estate market, and it remains a great time to buy or sell a property. At Long & Foster, we’ve been through many market cycles and are here to help you achieve success no matter the market conditions.

It’s important to remember that real estate is hyperlocal and if you have any questions about the market in your neighborhood, call, text or email me. Likewise, if you or anyone you know is planning to buy or sell a home, I’m always available to help them with all of their real estate needs.

All the best to you for a happy November.

Even with Rates Rising, Here’s Why it’s a Good Time to Buy Versus Rent

Choosing to become a homeowner is generally one of the biggest decisions of your life. It’s a financial and emotional decision that must be made based on your individual circumstances. But if sky-high rent increases have you leaning toward the security of owning your home, here’s why it’s a good time to buy.

What’s Happening in the Rental Market?

Rental costs have grown at their fastest pace in more than three decades. The national median cost of a monthly rental is now over $2,000 for the first time ever. Rent has increased over 30% in some of the major cities and are expected to continue to rise sharply into 2023.

Why it’s a Good Time to Buy

After several years of a hot seller’s market, conditions are shifting to a more balanced market.

Mortgage Rates Rise, But Still Historically Low. Although interest rates have risen to over 5%, they’re still at historic lows. Mortgage demand has dipped to its lowest in 22 years, causing far fewer buyers than we’ve seen recently, reducing competition for homes.

Price Adjustments. While 50% of the homes for sale in the Mid-Atlantic had a price adjustment at some point, you might still have to make a quick offer if the house you’re looking at is competitive.

More Homes for Sale. After years of not enough homes on the market, housing inventory is up almost 20%, creating buying opportunities.

Financial Benefits of Owning a Home

Hedge Against Inflation: Homeownership provides stability. With a fixed rate mortgage, your monthly payment can be locked in, which is especially important in today’s inflationary environment.

Pay Your Mortgage (Not Your Landlord’s Mortgage): As you pay your mortgage, its balance is reduced, building equity in the property.

Appreciation. While every market is different, home values have historically appreciated about 4% annually. Plus, you enjoy appreciation on the total price of the home, not just the cash you put down.

Tax benefits. Your tax advisor can help determine eligible tax deductions, which generally include mortgage interest and property taxes.

The net benefits of paying a mortgage often outweigh the monthly rent you’ll pay – and as a homeowner, you’ll have a valuable asset.

If you’re trying to decide whether to buy a home or continue renting, we can help you explore your options. Likewise, if you, your friends or family are buying or selling a home, don’t hesitate to reach out.

The Difference Between Today’s Shifting Market and the 2008 Housing Crisis

About 15 years ago, we experienced a housing crisis. Unfortunately, at that time, many Americans lost their homes and real estate investments. Although our current market is shifting, homeowners need not worry that history will repeat itself. The factors affecting today’s housing market are vastly different than they were in the mid to late 2000s.

The 2008 Housing Crisis – What Happened?

Relaxed lending standards caused high buyer demand but led to an inability to repay mortgage loans as many obtained loans that would not qualify under today’s lending standards. Homes fell into foreclosure when borrowers could no longer make their mortgage payments and with no equity in their homes, they were unable to sell.

The 2022 Market Shift – What’s Happening Now?

There are stricter lending guidelines in place and that, combined with low rates, high demand, and plenty of home equity (less than two percent of homes with mortgages have negative equity today), create opportunities for both buyers and sellers.

How The Two Are Different

The conditions surrounding the 2008 housing crisis limited the options for those who could no longer afford their mortgage payments. Today, the vast majority of sellers have the advantage of positive home equity, as well as low mortgage rates and high buyer demand.

If you, your friends or family are thinking about buying or selling a home, I am always available to help or answer any questions about current market conditions.

Enjoy August!

Real Estate as a Hedge Against Inflation

With the recent stock market volatility, inflation and all that’s going on in the world, you may be looking for opportunities to diversify and protect your investment portfolio. Over the long term, real estate provides steady appreciation and is usually an excellent investment response to inflation. Savvy consumers are becoming increasingly interested in owning property to get the many benefits that help offset stock market volatility and inflation.

Even with the recent uptick of mortgage interest rates, real estate is still considered a safe haven to add to one’s investment mix. Here’s a look at several of the potential benefits of diversifying your portfolio into real estate.

Appreciation. While every market is different, home values have historically appreciated approximately 4% annually. Plus, as real estate is a leveraged investment, you enjoy appreciation on the total price of the home, not just the cash you put down to purchase it.

Tax benefits. Your tax advisor can help determine eligible tax deductions on an investment property, which generally include mortgage interest, property taxes, depreciation and operating costs, such as repairs and maintenance.

Tenant-paid mortgage. As your tenant pays rent, your mortgage balance is reduced, building equity in the property for a future sale or to borrow against and buy another property.

Cash flow. Depending on expenses, you can usually generate positive cash flow from the rent you charge.

If you’re thinking about investing in real estate, I can help evaluate investment properties that fit your financial goals. In addition, my Long & Foster partners in mortgage, title, insurance and property management are here to assist you every step of the way.

Wishing you and your family a great spring!

Market Update – June 2021

Selling a home in 2021 can be easy, but buying one is a whole different story. Low interest rates continue to be the driver in this robust housing market, creating increased buying power. On the other hand, the limited number of homes for sale and the high level of buyer demand has created a market tilted heavily in favor of sellers.

In this highly competitive market, what do you do if you want a smooth transition when selling and buying a home concurrently? It’s one of the least risky times to buy your next home before selling your current home. If you’re able to handle the payments on two homes for six months or so, then buy first and sell later.

For those that may not have the funds available to purchase a home while owning one, here are some options to consider.

Home of Choice Contingency. Written into the contract, this agreement protects the seller from having to sell their current home before finding their next home.

Rent Back Agreement. This post-closing occupancy agreement allows the seller to continue to live in the home for a fee or for free, typically up to 60 days, temporarily making the buyer the landlord.

Bridge Loan. A bridge loan enables you to borrow money to pay for the down payment on your next home based on the equity in your current home.

Home Equity Line of Credit. Tap into the equity of your current home by taking out a home equity loan before you put your home on the market to provide the funds needed to make your purchase first.

In this market, whether you’re buying or selling a home, I can help evaluate your options to decide which to do first and how to optimize both transactions.

My best to you and your family.

Will the Housing Market Bloom This Spring?

Spring is almost here, and many are wondering what it will bring for the housing market. Even though the pandemic continues on, it’s certain to be very different from the spring we experienced at this time last year. Here’s what a few industry experts have to say about the housing market and how it will bloom this season.

Danielle Hale, Chief Economist, realtor.com:
“Despite early weakness, we expect to see new listings grow in March and April as they traditionally do heading into spring, and last year’s extraordinarily low new listings comparison point will mean year over year gains. One other potential bright spot for would-be homebuyers, new construction, which has risen at a year over year pace of 20% or more for the last few months, will provide additional for-sale inventory relief.”

Ali Wolf, Chief Economist, Zonda:
“Some people will feel comfortable listing their home during the first half of 2021. Others will want to wait until the vaccines are widely distributed. This suggests more inventory will be for sale in late 2021 and into the spring selling season in 2022.”

Freddie Mac:
“Since reaching a low point in January, mortgage rates have risen by more than 30 basis points… However, the rise in mortgage rates over the next couple of months is likely to be more muted in comparison to the last few weeks, and we expect a strong spring sales season.”

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist, First American:
“As the housing market heads into the spring home buying season, the ongoing supply and demand imbalance all but assures more house price growth…Many find it hard to believe, but housing is actually undervalued in most markets and the gap between house-buying power and sale prices indicates there’s room for further house price growth in the months to come.”

Bottom Line
The experts are very optimistic about the housing market right now. If you pressed pause on your real estate plans over the winter, reach out to The Butch Cazin Team to determine how you can re-engage in the homebuying process this spring.

-KeepingCurrentMatters.com

WHAT’S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AN APPRAISAL AND A HOME INSPECTION

by KeepingCurrentMatters.com.

What’s the Difference between an Appraisal and a Home Inspection?

If you’re planning to buy a home, an appraisal is an important step in the process. It’s a professional evaluation of the market value of the home you’d like to buy. In most cases, an appraisal is ordered by the lender to confirm or verify the value of the home prior to lending a buyer money for the purchase. It’s also a different step in the process from a home inspection, which assesses the condition of the home before you finalize the transaction. Here’s the breakdown of each one and why they’re both important when buying a home.

Home Appraisal
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) explains:

“A home purchase is typically the largest investment someone will make. Protect yourself by getting your investment appraised! An appraiser will observe the property, analyze the data, and report their findings to their client. For the typical home purchase transaction, the lender usually orders the appraisal to assist in the lender’s decision to provide funds for a mortgage.”

When you apply for a mortgage, an unbiased appraisal (which is required by the lender) is the best way to confirm the value of the home based on the sale price. Regardless of what you’re willing to pay for a house, if you’ll be using a mortgage to fund your purchase, the appraisal will help make sure the bank doesn’t loan you more than what the home is worth.

This is especially critical in today’s sellers’ market where low inventory is driving an increase in bidding wars, which can push home prices upward. When sellers are in a strong position like this, they tend to believe they can set whatever price they want for their house under the assumption that competing buyers will be willing to pay more.

However, the lender will only allow the buyer to borrow based on the value of the home. This is what helps keep home prices in check. If there’s ever any confusion or discrepancy between the appraisal and the sale price, your trusted real estate professional will help you navigate any additional negotiations in the buying process.

Home Inspection
Here’s the key difference between an appraisal and an inspection. MSN explains:

“In simplest terms, a home appraisal determines the value of a home, while a home inspection determines the condition of a home.”

The home inspection is a way to determine the current state, safety, and condition of the home before you finalize the sale. If anything is questionable in the inspection process – like the age of the roof, the state of the HVAC system, or just about anything else – you as a buyer have the option to discuss and negotiate any potential issues or repairs with the seller before the transaction is final. Your real estate agent is a key expert to help you through this part of the process.

Bottom Line
The appraisal and the inspection are critical steps when buying a home, and you don’t need to manage them by yourself. Reach out to The Butch Cazin Team today so you have the expert guidance you need to navigate through the entire homebuying process.

MARKET UPDATE – DECEMBER 2020

While 2020 has been an incredibly challenging year, housing turned out as a bright spot. Despite the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, homeownership rates rose to 67.4% in the third quarter, up from 64.8% the same period in 2019.
The fundamentals are in place for a continued strong housing market in 2021, particularly with expectations that mortgage rates will remain around 3%. Here are a few more of our predictions for the year ahead.
Home prices will rise. The law of supply and demand will drive prices higher, with 5% to 6% increases predicted on average.
Affordability will remain mostly positive. Low mortgage rates will offset rising prices, increasing the number of households who can afford to buy a home.
Inventory challenges will continue. While builders are expected to construct homes at a faster pace in 2021, there’s still a gap between demand and supply for new and existing homes.
Increased teleworking will influence housing. People will continue to work from home, affecting where they’re shopping for homes and what they’re looking for in those properties.
Vacation home markets will stay hot. In 2020, homeowners with rising equity and investors with high stock market profits drove a spike in demand for homes in coastal markets, which will continue next year.
Technology remains critical. Virtual tours, remote closings and video conferencing kept real estate moving in 2020, and virtual buying and selling will continue to lead the way in 2021.
Whether you’re looking to buy, sell or invest in real estate in 2021, we can help. With our partners in mortgage, title, insurance and moving, our Long & Foster family has you covered for all your real estate needs. Happy Holidays!

Weekly Update: July 13, 2020

We’re halfway through the year and many are curious to know how the real estate market is measuring up to past years – especially with this year’s added challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic. While we expect some bumps in the road in the coming months, as of today, the market looks good.

Mortgage rates continue to decline. Last week mortgage rates dropped to an average of 3.03% for the 30-year-fixed rate. This new low has helped spur both home sales and refinances.

Consumer sentiment is moving in the right direction. Consumer sentiment is one of the most important metrics in determining the health of the real estate market. For June, consumer sentiment came in at 78.1, up from May’s low of 72.3.

Inventory remains low and people are still looking to buy. Active inventory was down 10% in the first week of July compared to the same week in 2019, while new listing volume was up by 22%. Showing activity of homes on the market was up 27.6%.

Median sale prices rose while homes sold faster. In most areas, median sale prices of homes were up slightly in June. The average number of days homes spent on the market fell by about 2 days.

The stock market is up. Rising numbers in the stock market can likely be attributed to good employment numbers from June as well as hopes for a vaccine for COVID-19. Last month brought another 4.8 million jobs, which was higher than predicted, and unemployment fell to 11.1%.

The bottom line is if you’re planning to sell, I recommend putting your house on the market before fall. There are many buyers out there who are ready and waiting for more inventory to come on the market, and presidential election years typically come with a slowdown in home sales in the weeks surrounding the election. Similarly, if you’re looking to buy, let me know. We can start your virtual house hunt today.

Let me know if you have additional questions. I’m happy to assist you with your real estate needs.